clumba's Xanga

Saturday, September 02, 2006

Sat, 02 Sep 2006 19:14:19 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Fifteen

By Cesar Lumba

It's high time we change the name of the Philippines.

We all know that the Philippines was named after King Philip II of Spain, yet we know very little about the king that we Filipinos have effectively immortalised.  This morning I woke up with an itch to find out more about the legendary king, so I turned to Google and Ask.com.

Turns out the king was the son of Holy Roman Emperor Charles V and Isabella of Portugal.  Nothing wrong there, other than the fact Charles V and Isabella were first cousins.  In fact, Philip II belonged to the Habsburg family that had inbred over the centuries, with cousins marrying cousins, nieces marrying their uncles, that at some points in the inbreeding processes, mentally defective genes were perpetuated, causing insanity and Mongoloidism to run in the family.

Philip II himself took as his fourth wife a niece, Anne of Austria, who was the daughter of his mother's sister.  The union produced Philip III, who would eventually succeed Philip II, but only titularly.  In reality, Philip III was ruled by his servants, according to Wikipedia.

Eventually, the Habsburg inbreeding produced Charles II of Spain, who was known as El Hechizado (The Bewitched) because his physical and mental disabilities caused his oversized tongue to hang out of his mouth, which in turn caused him to constantly drool.  El Hechizado himself believed that he had been bewitched and welcomed his frequent exorcisms.

That's as far as the family went.

What about Philip II's rule as King of Spain, what was it like?  Having been installed by his father - Holy Roman Emperor Charles V - as king of Spain, Naples, the Netherlands, the colonies which included Chile and the Philippines, later also Portugal, Philip II was handed an empire by his doting father.  Philip II succeeded in alienating the Dutch, who successfully broke away. He lost several Spanish Armadas to the British, whicch defeats gave rise to British supremacy in the seven seas.  He managed to run the Spanish economy to the ground with his George Bush-like tax policies.  Philip II taxed traders, shopkeepers and businessmen heavily, but did not tax the far richer nobility and the Catholic Church, which really controlled the wealth in the country.  At one point, the interest on Spain's foreign loans had reached 40% of gross domestic product, and Spain was forced to declare bankruptcy. It was one of four bankruptcies of the Spanish throne.

His "every tenth coin" policy exacerbated his tenuous relationship with the Dutch, who revolted against the 10% sales tax Philip II had imposed, leading to the Dutch declaration of independence from the Spanish king in 1581.

Philip II was considered the first true king of Spain:  his father, Charles V, was actually a Holy Roman Emperor.  The Spanish empire that he inherited from his father had its zenith during his reign, but his mismanagement of his kingly duties also spelled the doom for that empire.  The fact that his Habsburg successors had grossly defective genes hastened furtther the decline of the Spanish empire.

Eventually, a chap named Phlip of Bourbon managed to succeed into the throne and founded the Bourbon family, which rules Spain to this day, represented by the current King Juan Carlos.

Now that we know who that King Philip II was that the Philippines was named after, do we still feel that somehow the Philippines is linked to a great man?  Why is the Philippines the only country in the world that is named after a European King?  In fact, named after any king?  There are two different accounts:  one account says that Holy Roman Emperor Charles V in a burst of paternal enthusiasm named the Philippines after his son, Philip II, in 1540, when the latter was 13 years old and showing promise as a future king.  Another account (from Wikipedia) says Philip II named the Philippines after himself when he was already king, sometime after 1556.

Why was Mexico not named after a Spanish king?  Or Chile?  Or Argentina?

Myanmar.

The British named the territory east of India and west of Malaya "Burma" probably because they mispronounced the word Bamar.  The Bamars were the majority - approaching 70% of the population - in what is now Myanmar.  Myanmar appears to be a coined word combining Myan, which stands for an agglomeration of races, and Mar (which stands for Bamar).  Myanmar was the old name of the land, far predating the English concoction, Burma.

In 1989, the Burmese changed their country's name back to Myanmar, forever erasing the sorest vestige of their British colonial experience.  The U.S. has never officially accepted the name Myanmar, however the U.N. has and the changeover is a done deal.

Beijing and Mumbai

We all know about Peking's switch back to its old name, Beijing, and Bombay's recent change back to its ancient name, Mumbai.

Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Taiwan

The probable next Prime Minister of Japan, Senzo Abe, says he wants a new constitution, not the one that the American military forced upon the Japanese population after the Second World War.

Malaysia was of course once Malaya and Borneo.  Indonesia was formerly known as the Dutch East Indies. Taiwan was once known as Formosa.

The Asianization of much of Asia is a continuous process that started after the Second World War, when countries in Asia gained their independence from the Western powers and from Japan.

Time to change the name of the Philippines

It is against this backdrop and against the backdrop of the current drive to amend the Philippine constitution that I appeal to my fellow Filipinos (I'm a dual citizen) to reconsider a proposal that was made a few decades ago to change the name of the Philippines.  The name that was selected by its proponents was "Maharlika," which, while cute, did not strike the fancy of anyone in the Philippines.

The Philippines does not have a long tradition as a nation, such as Myanmar, but neither did Malaysia, nor Indonesia for that matter.  We cannot go back in our history and pull a name such as Myanmar, or Beijing, or Mumbai and say, "here, from now on we will be known by our old ancestral name, forever slaying our colonial fathers."

Crafting a new name will have to be done by the current generations, now that we have more than a century of experience as a nation, in addition to more than four centuries of the Spanish cross and American modernizing influences.

My suggestions

I want to start the ball rolling by suggesting a few names.  I hope that others would suggest their own until we can come to a consensus.  The risk is that the Filipino people will ignore us, but the possible rewards are great.  A lot of other Filipinos might be thinking the same thing, and the movement could snowball.

Silanganan - from the phrase, "Perlas ng Silanganan" which loosely translates to "pearl of the Orient Sea."

Bayaniland - mimicking Thailand, literally land of heroes, obviously referring to the heroic struggles of most Filipinos to survive their abject poverty, but historically, the herioic struggles of people such as Diego Silang, Lapu-Lapu, Bonifacio, Rizal, Ninoy Aquino, etc.

Bayanihan - literally, being heroes for each other.

I could go on, as you may expect, but more than anything, dear readers, I need your inputs.

(The author took a much-needed break over the summer, and is only now returning to his two weblogs.)

Saturday, May 27, 2006

Sat, 27 May 2006 11:19:50 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Fourteen

By Cesar Lumba

While I was busy making plans and offering recommendations - and while I was sleeping - people have been busy in the Philippines making things happen. And when such people are the biggest movers and shakers, the results are truly amazing.

(The above paragraph is an obvious allusion to the first chapter in Thomas Friedman's classic The World is Flat. The title of that chapter is "While I was Sleeping..." While he was sleeping, the world was flattening, wrote Friedman. Third world countries were catching up with America, and now the playing field is level. The world is flat.)

There's a new organization that has captured the imagination of a lot of Filipino technocrats in the New York area, in Los Angeles and other parts of the globe. Called GILAS, which is an acronym for Gearing Up for Internet Literacy and Access for Students, this new all-volunteer organization is spearheaded by the Ayala Foundation in the Philippines and supported by other foundations, political leaders, educators and major coporations, including the media giant GMA-Inquirer.

Google has even gotten in on the action, donating free pop-up advertising that is spreading the word.

Already there are novel approaches to education that have been made possible. A Fil-Am art teacher from the midwest has offered to teach an art course for free over the 'net. Students in high schools now connected to the internet can benefit from this. And it is only the start. When all public high schools in the Philippines are on line, other courses can be taught by experts and professionals living in remote corners of the world.

100% of public school students in Taiwan, Singapore and Hongkong are now connected to the internet. In five years, if GILAS achieves its goal, the Philippines will be one such country.

There is so much buzz about Gilas, achieved over a relatively short period of time, that it has emerged, along with Gawad Kalinga, as one of the biggest star constellations in the Philippine firmament.

Vicky Garchitorena, President of Ayala Foundation and the point person in America for the growing movement: "Launched in January 2005, GILAS has by year-end connected 727 schools. The program is now estimated to reach 350,000 young Filipinos who can ahieve computer and internet literacy before they go out to join the workforce. Such skills, now considered an essential qualification for almost any job, will help these underprivileged youths in getting better paying jobs, so that they can escape and perhaps even break the cycle of poverty they may find themselves in."

There are 5500 public high schools in the Philippines, which puts in perspective the massive challenge that GILAS has undertaken. The goal of the movement is to provide computers and internet connectivity to all public high schools by 2010. To achieve this, chapters are being set up in the global Filipino community to function as conduits for donations and pledges, and as drum beaters. The world's Foundations are also being targeted for much needed financial and/or in-kind support.

Filipinos all over the world buy a lot of computers run by Windows and other Microsoft software, so maybe, just maybe, the Gates Foundation would like to partner with GILAS in the task of empowering Filipino high school students. After all, the Gates Foundation is now at the forefront of the fight against AIDS, against poverty in Africa and other regions. Adding Philippine public high schools to its growing list of beneficiaries will be the other shoe in Asia. Gates has already dropped one shoe in India, lavishing contributions to India's huge pipeline of private donated money to further develop high-tech in that country. The Philippines is generally known as India's minor partner in the international call center and outsourced software development business. By infusing money into Philippine high schools, Gates would create another potentially huge future source of call center and high tech talent.

I have volunteered to help out in New York, and the few fellow volunteers I have talked to were initially attracted to the project because it seeks to empower Fillipinos. Like many Filipinos in the so-called diaspora, we have grown weary of throwing charitable contributions into what seems to be a bottomless pit in the Philippines. Every year, there's a typhoon, or an earthquake, or a mud slide, and we find ourselves straining to empty our wallets.

Disasters happen everywhere, and with global warming (despite some American politicians' cynicism) is threatening to cause a future barrage of catacysmic events. It is better to empower the Filipino youth now, so they can help themselves in the future, than to open up our wallets every year ad infinitum because each disaster cripples the Philippine government and overwhelms its infrastructure.

GILAS, while not the only one, offers a chance for Filipino students to grow up and be productive members not only of the Philippine workforce, but also of the world's. Their capacity to learn having made a quantum leap through the introduction of internet connectivity to their lives, the Filipino youth will be much better prepared to seek and gain employment in the 21st century global knowledge economy. They may even set up start-ups that will grow into high-tech world beaters

The resultant rise in their standard of living and the increased awareness they will have gained from the internet will allow the youth to make better decisions on how and where they live - away from mud-packed mountain sides, in urban centers where they are sheltered away from the ravages of the increasingly brutal typhoons - and the careers that they choose. The movement away from agriculture to the knowledge economy, bypassing the more traditional rust-belt economy, will be accelerated by the success of GILAS.

Capitalizing on the nationalism of most Filipinos in the global community, GILAS is betting that when sufficiently informed of the goals and achievements of the new movement, many Filipinos would want to contribute their time and/or resources to the project. It was a winning bet. Everyboy who hears about GILAS wants to help. It started as a fund-raising project, it is now a movement.

Because GILAS is an all-volunteer army and all overhead costs are borne by the Ayala Foundation and some major Philippine corporations, all monies contributed to GILAS go directly to the purchase of computers and internet connectivity.

It costs $6000 to purchase computers and internet connectivity for one high school in the Philippines. A couple of weeks ago, the SGV Alumni Association in the New York area held a fund-raising dinner for GILAS and collected $6000. The founder of SGV, Washington Sycip, pledged an additional $6000. That means two public high schools will now be added to the fast-growing list of high schools where students will be able to gain internet literacy.

A Filipino venture capitalist in the Los Angeles area was so impressed by Vicky Garchitorena's presentation that he pledged $100,000 in quarterly payments over three years. That is a potential $1.2 million, which will finance the needs of 200 public high schools. Everywhere Vicky turns, wallets are being opened. Global Filipinos are looking for worthwhile projects to support. Her timing is perfect. Filipinos want to believe that the Philippines is not hopeless, as the naysayers warn, and that they are somehow key.

Leo Legaspi, the point person in New York, relates the wonderment of some high school sutdents when they came face-to-face with the amazing capabilities of their new technology.

To demonstrate the power of the internet, GILAS volunteers in New York arranged a Voice over the Internet Telephony (VoIP) call from Secaucus, New Jersey to Kapitolyo High School in Pasig. Using e-bay's Skype, volunteer Bert Aguilera addressed the students in the high school, "Kumusta na po kayo?"

Bert chatted with the students and then with the computer teacher in the high school. Ms. Leni Daniel and her students were amazed at how people could talk to each other over a distance of 8500 miles with no long distance charges or the use of prepaid phone cards.

I mentioned the Gawad Kalinga project in passing. It is another privately funded project that has become a movement. At a cost of P50,000 ($1000) each, houses are being built on donated land in the Philippines for slum dwellers. That, too, has inspired legions of global Fillipinos - and even non-Filipinos. Entire villages are springing up literally overnight and giving shelter to Filipino families who used to live in one-room cardboard shanties in the slums of the Philippines.

Taken together, the GILAS and Gawad Kalinga projects will eventually give a lie to the cynical observation that the Philippines is a permanent basket case, the sick man of Asia who can't seem to get out of his own way.

No siree, not with the 8 million and counting in the Philippine diaspora volunteering their time and resources to nation building in the old country.

(The picture shows Ms. Vicky Garchitorena, Ayala Foundation President, and some of the volunteers in the New York area. Some in the picture are New York point man Leo Legaspi, Joseph Tieng, Rene Enriquez, Nelsie Parado, Robert P de Tagle, and yours truly.)

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Tue, 04 Apr 2006 10:37:26 GMT

From time to time, we will print articles from outstanding historical figures in the Philippines who have been involved in nation-building there. One of the most colorful nation builders, retired Brigadier General Vic Corpus, a PMAer, a former NPA operative, a military adviser to Philippine Presidents, a green-blooded Lasallian, is now focused on international military dynamics, with emphasis on the Asian-Pacific region.

He is a much sought-after speaker in the Pentagon circles, and is drawing raves on the military strategizing circuit.

The “Assassin’s Mace”:

A Worst-case Scenario for the New American Century

By Victor N. Corpus

(March 30, 2006)

Why worst case? Because of hard lessons from history – that’s why. The Romans did not consider the worst case scenario when Hannibal crossed the Alps with his elephants and routed them; or when Hannibal encircled and annihilated the numerically superior Roman army at the Battle of Cannae. The French did not consider the worst case scenario at Dien Bien Phu and when they built the Maginot Line, and the French suffered disastrous defeats. The Americans did not consider the worst case scenario at Pearl Harbor or in September 11, and the results were disastrous for the American people. Again, American planners did not consider the worst case scenario in its latest war in Iraq, but instead delved on the “best case scenario” such as considering the Iraq invasion as a “cake walk” and that the Iraqi people will be parading in the streets, throwing flowers, and welcoming American soldiers as “liberators”, only to discover the opposite.

Scenario One: America Launches “Preventive War” vs. China

"Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power. These regions include Western Europe, East Asia, the territory of the former Soviet Union, and Southwest Asia.”

– Paul Wolfowitz, former U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy and currently the President of World Bank

l Since 1978,

China

has averaged 9.4% annual GDP growth

l 5-fold increase in total output per capita from 1982-2002

l $61 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in 2004 alone

l Foreign trade of $851 B; third largest in the world

l U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in 2005

l $750 Billion in Foreign Exchange Reserves

l Second biggest oil importer

l 442,000 new engineers a year; with 48,000 graduates with masters’ degrees and 8,000 Ph.D’s annually (Howard French); compared to only 60,000 new engineers a year in the U.S.

China

for the first time (2004) has surpassed

America

to export the most technology wares around the world. China enjoyed a $34B trade surplus w/US in advanced technology products in 2004 (The Economist, Dec 17, 2005). In 2005, the surplus has increased to $36 B

l 20,000 new manufacturing facilities a year

l Low cost, vast manpower reserves combined with financial and technological strengths of rich neighbors

l Holds $252 Billion in U.S. Treasury Bonds (plus $48 B held by Hong Kong)

l “Among the five basic food, energy, and industrial commodities – grain and meat, oil and coal, and steel – consumption in China has eclipsed that of

U.S.

in all but oil.” (Lester Brown)

l China has also gone ahead of

U.S.

in consumption of TV sets, refrigerators and mobile phones

l In 1996 China had 7 m cell phones & the

U.S.

had 44 m. Now “China has more mobile phone users than the

U.S.

has people.” (Jeff Sloan)

China

has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close to 50%; U.S. has about $158 billion in personal savings and a savings rate of about 2% (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

l Shanghai boasts 4,000 skyscrapers – double the number in New York City (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)

l Songbei, Harbin City in North China is building a city as big as New York City

l Goldman Sachs predicts that China will surpass

U.S.

economy by 2041.

Before China’s economy catches up with America, and before China builds a military machine that can challenge American superpower status and world dominance, American top strategic planners (“Project for the New American Century”) decide to launch a “preventive war” against

China

. As a pretext for its “preventive war”, the U.S. instigates

Taiwan

to declare independence.

Taiwan

declares independence!

China

has anticipated and long prepared itself for this event. After observing “Operation Summer Pulse – 04” when seven U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups converged in the waters off China’s coast in mid-July through August of 2004, Chinese planners began preparing to face its own worst-case scenario: the possibility of confronting a total of fifteen carrier battle groups composed of twelve from America and three from its close British ally. China’s strategists refer to its counter-strategy to defeat 15 or more aircraft carrier battle groups as the “assassin’s mace” or “shashaujian”.

After proper coordination with Russia and

Iran

and activating their previously agreed strategic plan, involved troops and weapon systems are pre-positioned. China then launches a missile barrage on Taiwan. Command and control nodes, military bases, logistics centers, vital war industries, government centers, and air defense installations are simultaneously hit with short and medium range ballistic missiles armed with conventional, anti-radar, thermo baric, and electro-magnetic pulse warheads.

At the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command and Control Center, ranking defense officials watch huge electronic monitor screens show seven U.S. and two British aircraft carrier battle groups converging towards China Sea with another three U.S. carrier battle groups entering the Persian Gulf, while the remaining two U.S. and one British battle groups remain in the Indian Ocean to serve as strategic reserve.

As the aircraft carrier battle groups advance, China draws out one of its “trump cards” by leaking to the world media that it is dumping its holdings of

U.S.

treasury bonds and shifting to gold and euro currency.

Meanwhile, strategic planners at NORAD watch with glee as they observe on the screen as monitored by their radar satellites that Chinese surface ships make a hasty retreat as nine allied carrier battle groups advance toward the Philippine Sea and Chinese waters near Taiwan.

The “Assassin’s Mace”

China

’s anti-satellite weapons - Glee and ecstasy soon turn to shock as monitor screens suddenly go blank! Then all communication via satellites goes dead! China has drawn its second “trump card” (the “assassin’s mace”) by activating its maneuverable “parasite” micro-satellites that have unknowingly clung to vital (NORAD) radar and communication satellites and have either jammed, blinded, or physically destroyed their hosts. This is complemented by space mines that maneuver near adversary satellites and explode. Secret Chinese and Russian ground-based anti-satellite laser weapons also blind or bring down U.S and British satellites used for C4ISR (command, control, communication, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance). And to ensure redundancy and make sure that the adversary C4ISR system is completely “blinded” even temporarily, hundreds of select Chinese and Russian information warriors (hackers) specifically trained to attack their adversary’s C4ISR systems simultaneously launch their cyber offensive.

For a few precious minutes, U.S. and

U.K.

advancing carrier battle groups are stunned and blinded by the “mace” i.e., a defensive weapon used to temporarily blind a stronger opponent. But the word “mace” has another meaning; one which is deadlier and used in combination with the first. The other meaning of “mace” is a spiked war club used in olden times to knock out an opponent. Applied in modern times, the “spikes” of the “assassin’s mace” refer to currently unstoppable supersonic cruise missiles capable of sinking aircraft carriers that are in China’s inventory; complemented by equally unstoppable “squall” or SHKVAL rocket torpedoes and regular 65 cm.-diameter wake-homing torpedoes, bottom-rising rocket-propelled mines, and “obsolete” warplanes converted into unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) firing anti-ship missiles from standoff positions and finally dive-bombing into the heart of the U.S. and U.K. aircraft carrier battle groups armada.

Missile Barrage on Advancing Carrier Battle Groups - A few seconds after the “blackout”, literally hundreds of short and medium range ballistic missiles (DF7/9/11/15s, DF4s, DF21X/As) pre-positioned in the China mainland, and stealthy, sea-skimming and highly-accurate cruise missiles (YJ12s, YJ22s, KH31A/Ps, YJ83s, C301s, C802s, SS-N-22s, SS-NX-26/27s, 3M54s & HN3s) delivered from platforms on land, sea, and air race toward their respective designated targets at supersonic speed. Aircraft carriers are allotted a barrage of more than two dozen cruise missiles each, followed by a barrage of short and medium range ballistic missiles timed to arrive in rapid succession.

Supersonic cruise missiles constitute China’s third deadly “trump card” against the

United States

– part of the so-call “assassin’s mace” (or spiked war club of old used to bludgeon the adversary). These unstoppable cruise missiles may be armed with 440-lb to 750-lb conventional warheads (or 200-kiloton tactical nuclear warheads ten times stronger than Hiroshima) traveling at more than twice the speed of sound (or “faster than a rifle bullet”). The cruise missiles, together with the SRBMs and MRBMs (short & medium range ballistic missiles) may also be armed with radio frequency weapons that can simulate the electro-magnetic pulse of nuclear explosions to fry computer chips, or fuel-air explosives that can annihilate the personnel in aircraft carriers and battleships without destroying the platforms. Their effective range varies from less than 100 to 1800 kilometers from stand-off positions. Delivered by long-range fighter-bombers and submarines, their range can be extended even further. In fact, stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines can deliver such nuclear payloads to the

U.S.

mainland itself.

No U.S. Defense versus Supersonic Cruise Missiles - The U.S. and

U.K.

aircraft carrier battle groups do not have any known defense against the new supersonic missiles of their adversaries. The Phalanx and Aegis ship defense systems may be effective against subsonic cruise missiles like the Exocets or Tomahawks, or exo-atmospheric ballistic missiles, but they are inadequate against the sea-skimming and supersonic Granits, Moskits and Yakhonts or similar types (Shipwreck, Sunburn and Onyx NATO codenames) of modern anti-ship missiles in

China

’s inventory. Not only China and Russia have these modern cruise missiles, but Iran, India and

North Korea

have them too. These missiles can be delivered by SU 27 variants, SU30s, Tu22M Blackjacks, Bears, J6s, JH-7/As, H-6Hs, J-10s, surface ships, diesel submarines, or common trucks.

China

’s Rocket Torpedoes - Adding to the problem of aircraft carriers are the “SHKVAL” or “squall” rocket torpedoes installed in some Chinese and Russian submarines and surface ships. At 6,000 lbs. apiece, these rocket torpedoes travel at 200 knots (or 230 mph) with a range of 7,500 yards and guided by autopilot. They are designed to sink aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Again, it is unfortunate for the U.S. and

U.K.

to have no known or existing defense against this new generation of rocket torpedoes.

China

’s Sea Mines – Complicating matters for the U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups are the hundreds of hard-to-detect, rocket-propelled, bottom-rising sea mines that are anchored and hidden in the sea bottom covering the pre-selected battle site in the China Sea and Philippine Sea designed to home in on submarines and surface ships, particularly aircraft carriers. These sophisticated sea mines (EM-52s) have been deployed by Chinese and Russian submarines before the missile attack on

Taiwan

in anticipation of the major event that is to follow.

Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles – Finally, on top of all these asymmetric weapons, the U.S. and

U.K.

aircraft carrier battle groups will have to contend with the thousands of “obsolete” Chinese fighter planes converted into Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) launching missiles at stand-off positions and finally diving “kamikaze” style into the heart of the carrier battle groups.

Submarines Complete Encirclement - Chinese and Russian submarines fire their inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and “squall” rocket torpedoes at the aircraft carriers and submarines of the U.S. and U.K. as the carrier battle groups come within range. As the battle progresses, the Chinese and Russian submarines maneuver to the rear of the carrier battle groups to complete the encirclement.

In less than an hour after the launching of the saturation barrage of missiles that rained on the U.S. and U.K. naval armada, all the aircraft carriers and their escorts of cruisers, battleships, and several of the accompanying submarines are in flames, sinking, or sunk, turning the China Sea and Philippine Sea into a modern-day “Battle of Cannae”.

Meanwhile, the Chinese fleet that conducted a strategic retreat forms a phalanx along the forward positions off China’s coast, ready to augment the hundreds or thousands of land-based long-range surface-to-air missiles of China (SA-10s, SA-15s, & SA-20s) with their own short, medium, and long-range air defense missile systems.

Applying its long-held military doctrine of “active defense”, China also launches simultaneous missile attacks on the forces-in-being and logistics-in-place of the U.S. and its allies in Japan, South Korea, Guam, Okinawa, Diego Garcia, and Kyrgyzstan, hitting these U.S. bases with missiles armed with radio frequency weapons, fuel-air explosives, and conventional warheads. As another Chinese military doctrine states: “Win victory with one strike”.

Chinese/Russian ICBMs/SLBMs are Cocked – Both Chinese and Russian inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and the two countries’ extensive air defense systems have been coordinated and ready to respond in the event that the U.S. and

U.K.

decide to retaliate with a nuclear attack. In addition, Ranets-E and Rosa-E Radio Frequency/ Electro-magnetic Pulse Systems scattered all along China’s coastal cities are on the look-out to neutralize incoming missiles and aircrafts that may respond after the attack on the aircraft carrier battle groups. These systems can work in tandem with airborne-based anti-missile laser systems now in China’s inventory.

China’s Trump Cards vs the U.S.

China’s deadly “trump cards” (i.e., the huge holdings of U.S. treasury bonds, the anti-satellite weapons system, the supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, SRBMs, MRBMs, “squall” rocket torpedoes, sea mines, UCAVs, DF31A and DF41 road-mobile ICBMs, JL2 SLBMs, air defense system, IO/EW/IW, and other RMA weapons) are the key ingredients of the “assassin’s mace”. China may not possess any of those expensive aircraft carriers of the superpower, but it can wipe out those carrier battle groups with a “single blow” of its so-called “assassin’s mace” or shashaujian – its major tool for conducting asymmetric warfare to defeat the United States in a major confrontation over the Taiwan issue or other issues in the future. The

United States

may possess the most powerful war machine in the world, but it can be defeated by an inferior force by avoiding the superpower’s strength and exploiting its weaknesses. Again, an integral part of Chinese doctrine is: “Victory through inferiority over superiority”. One famous Chinese strategist, Chang Mengxiong, compared asymmetric warfare to “a Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body points who can bring a stronger opponent to his knees with a minimum of movement."

The sad part is that even if U.S. planners come to realize that the aircraft carrier battle groups (which are the mainstay of the U.S. Navy and the main instrument of U.S. power projection worldwide), have been rendered vulnerable or obsolete by China’s “assassin’s mace”, the U.S. cannot simply change strategy or discard such weapons system. To change strategy or “retool” would mean the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars invested into those highly sophisticated systems. The strong lobbying of influential defense contractors making those systems would make change extremely difficult. For defense authorities to admit the strategic blunder constitutes an almost insurmountable barrier to change of strategy. And finally, the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs related to those systems may be politically and economically unbearable for any U.S. sitting administration to bear if the program for the aircraft carrier battle groups is scrapped. Because of these factors, America may be stuck with an obsolete system that is too expensive to maintain but will only lose the war for the U.S. when employed in a major conflict.

Middle East Front

Meanwhile, in another major front, upon previously coordinated signals with China and Russia, Iran lets loose her own barrage of supersonic Granit, Moskit, Brahmos, and Yakhont cruise missiles carried by common trucks or hidden in man-made tunnels all along the mountainous shoreline of Iran fronting the Persian Gulf. The three U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups that entered the Persian Gulf to ensure the unhindered flow of Arab oil are likened to helpless “sitting ducks” against the bottom-rising sea mines and low-flying, supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles in Iranian hands. In the process, a couple of U.S. oil tankers about to exit the Strait of Hormuz are also hit, thus effectively blockading the narrow strait and blocking U.S. oil supply coming out of the Middle East with the aid of rocket-propelled sea mines.

A “weak” nation like China or

Iran

, without a single aircraft carrier in their respective navies, can thus obliterate the carrier battle groups of a superpower. Here, one can see the hidden and often unnoticed power of asymmetric warfare, which may well spell the end of “gunboat diplomacy” in the not so distant future.

Central Asian Front

Also, in yet another major front, this time in Central Asia, Russian troops lead the other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan) into a major offensive against U.S. military bases in Central Asia. The target bases are first subjected to a simultaneous barrage of missiles with fuel-air explosives and EMP warheads before they are over-run and occupied by the SCO coalition forces. The missile attack on the U.S. bases is followed by a lightning “blitzkrieg” attack by 4 mechanized armored divisions coming from the “Yili Korgas Pass” of China’s Xinjiang province, linking up with Russia’s own armored divisions in a pincer offensive against U.S. forces in Central Asia and the Middle East.

America

Crippled in Three Major Fronts

In just a few hours (or days) after the outbreak of general hostilities, America, the world’s lone superpower, finds itself badly crippled militarily in three major regions of the world: Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.

Impossible? Unfortunately the answer is: NO. China now has the know-how and the financial resources to mass-produce hundreds, if not thousands of Moskit, Yakhont, and Granit-types of supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles and “squall”-type rocket torpedoes against which U.S. and

U.K.

aircraft carriers and submarines have no known defense. Iran, on the other hand, is already in possession of the same supersonic cruise missiles that can destroy any ship in the Persia Gulf, including

U.S.

aircraft carriers. Russia and China, meanwhile, are operating on familiar grounds close to its territory, compared to the U.S. that needs to cross the Atlantic and Pacific to replenish troops and logistics.

A Geopolitical Reality America has to Face

An important consideration in a U.S.-China conflict is the geopolitical reality that the U.S. and its allies will be operating on exterior lines while

China

will operate on interior lines. This gives China a huge advantage in a major war in Asia against U.S allied forces.

Consider the long sea lanes of communication (10,000 kilometers) that the U.S. alliance will be forced to cross each time its forces will re-supply and you get an idea of the huge logistics problem that the US will face in its confrontation with

China

. Such lengthy sea lanes of communication (SLOC) are highly vulnerable to a gauntlet of Chinese and Russian submarines lying in ambush along the route laden with underwater sea mines . This will make the transport of personnel and equipment by the United States over the Pacific or the Atlantic extremely dangerous and expensive.

Compare this U.S. handicap with troop movement by Chinese troops using heavy-lift aircraft, railways and highways within the

China

mainland. China’s interior lines of communication are shorter and protected, with little chance for enemy interdiction. Chinese troops can concentrate numerically superior forces rapidly at any given point to defeat the invading U.S. forces one by one with much shorter and less vulnerable lines of communications.

And in the event that the U.S. forces and its allies are lucky enough to land their forces on the Chinese mainland, they will be faced not only with a conventional People’s Liberation Army of more than two million strong, but also with a people’s militia conducting asymmetric warfare and people’s war in their teeming millions! U.S forces and their allies will be likened to a raging bull charging and goring a hive of killer bees. U.S. forces may be able to set foot in

China

, but it is highly doubtful if they can come out of it alive.

Grimmer Scenarios

There is a scenario grimmer than described above, however, and that is if strategic planners belonging to that elite group called the “Project for the New American Century” (or PNAC) decide to launch a nuclear “first strike” against China and Russia and risk a mutually-assured destruction: 1) in defense of Taiwan... or 2) in launching a “preventive war” to prevent China from catching up economically and militarily. Or, if China decides to start the offensive against Taiwan with a one-megaton nuclear burst 40 kilometers above the center of the island. Or, if China and Russia decide to arm a number of their short and medium range ballistic missiles and supersonic cruise missiles with tactical nuclear warheads in defending themselves against the U.S. and U.K. aircraft carrier battle groups. Land-attack versions of these supersonic cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads carried by stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines can also put American coastal cities at great risk to nuclear devastation. Strategic planners must also consider these worst-case possibilities.

Scenario Two: America versus a Medium Power

“In the Middle East and Southwest Asia, our overall objective is to remain the predominant outside power in the region and preserve U.S. and Western access to the region's oil.” - Paul Wolfowitz

“I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian. But the oil and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan.” – Dick Cheney in 1998 as Chief Executive of a major oil services company

History is replete with vivid examples where a much stronger and larger force was defeated by a weaker and smaller force. The French were defeated by Vietminh Guerrillas in Dien Bien Phu. The Soviet Union forces, still a superpower at that time, were defeated in

Afghanistan

. And another superpower, the United States, was defeated by “ill-clad, ill-fed, and ill-armed” Vietcong guerrillas in

Vietnam

Asymmetric Warfare

If the

United States

will push through its plan of world domination in what is called the “Project for the New American Century”, then it should expect all the smaller and weaker countries that do not wish to be pushed around to fight back using a method of fighting called asymmetric warfare. Asymmetric warfare is a form of warfare that allows the weak to fight and defeat a much stronger foe by “attacking the enemy’s weakness while avoiding his strength”.

The

United States

, for instance, may possess the most sophisticated weapons system on earth. They may have the most modern planes, helicopters, ships, guns, precision-guided weapons, sophisticated sensors, and command and control systems, but if they cannot see their adversary, if they are fighting a shadowy and “invisible” enemy (like what the American and British forces are now experiencing in Iraq), such

advanced and sophisticated weapons systems are rendered useless.

In asymmetric warfare, most of the fighting will be conducted at the team level. Thousands of agile and elusive teams consisting of 2 -5 members equipped with man-portable surface-to-air missiles, portable anti-tank guided weapons, .50 cal sniper rifles, man-portable mortars, anti-tank mines, anti-personnel mines, sea mines, C4 explosives (for making car bombs, booby-traps, and improvised explosive devices or IEDs) riding in bicycles, motorcycles, tricycles and fast boats will make the lives of any invading or occupying forces extremely miserable and deadly.

These “invisible” agile teams merge with the population most of the time and come out only when there is a vulnerable target to strike at. Then, they disappear again into the shadows. They communicate via runners bringing coded written messages, so there are no electronic signals to track down. They operate semi-autonomously, so there are no centers of gravity that can be targeted. And since they are indigenous to the area and united with the local people, their human intelligence (HUMINT) is far more superior to the hated foreign invaders. They will also enjoy a tremendous advantage in psychological operations (PSYOPS), for it is much easier to mobilize the nationalist sentiments against a foreign occupier than for an aggressor to justify occupation.

Asymmetric warfare may be compared to a fierce lion invading the territory of a school of piranhas; or a king cobra encroaching into a colony of fire ants. The lion may be the king of beasts, mighty and strong but it is no match against the tiny piranhas in their own territory. The sharp fangs and claws of the lion are rendered useless. The same is true with the cobra’s venom. The analogy applies to the French in Dien Bien Phu, the Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Americans in Vietnam and now in

Iraq

Asynchronous Warfare

Aside from asymmetric warfare, weak nations fighting the strong can also avail of asynchronous warfare. If a strong nation invades or occupies a weak one, the weak bides its time to strike back. And it strikes at a time and place when and where the adversary least expects and least prepared. An example is

Iraq

. The underground resistance movement in Iraq may recruit Iraqi scientists or sympathetic scientists of other nationalities to infiltrate the United States (via the Mexican border, for instance) and manufacture dirty bombs as well as chemical and biological weapons inside the

U.S.

borders. Such weapons may be brought to Washington D.C. and detonated in or near the U.S. Congress during the U.S. President’s State of the Union address, for example.

They can also hire a private plane, or buy one themselves, and use it to spread biological or chemical weapons they have manufactured in-country over New York or Washington D.C. They can mail letters containing anthrax to key offices of vital services all over the

U.S.

and paralyze utilities and other government functions nationwide. Or they can smuggle, say, the components of a hundred portable surface-to-air missiles, assemble them in the U.S., and employ them simultaneously in all of the major airports in America. Or they can employ those portable surface-to-air missiles to simultaneously target American airlines taking off or landing in different international airports all over the world.

Some major powers may pass on their research on RMA (revolution in military affairs) to the Iraqi resistance movement to be tested inside the U.S. mainland. These weapons include laser weapons, ultrahigh frequency weapons, ultrasonic wave weapons, stealth weapons, high-powered microwave weapons, and electromagnetic guns. They include miniature robot ants that infiltrate computers, stay dormant, and then activate on signal to destroy their hosts.

The Iraqi underground can also recruit hackers who can work inside and/or outside the United States to hack the U.S. banking system, financial system, stock exchange, airport tower control systems, train control system, power supply system, water control system, dam control system, ballistic missile system, C4ISR system, and other key systems critical to the

U.S.

economy. At a given signal, assigned hackers simultaneously do their thing. The

U.S.

, which is considered the most advanced country when it comes to Information Technology, has become too dependent on computers and related high-tech equipment that its inherent strength has, ironically, turned into its own “Achilles heel”.

Here, we are talking only of

Iraq

. What if the

U.S.

tries to impose its will and dominance on 5 or 10 other sovereign nations? Can the

U.S.

hope to “fight and win” an asymmetric war against smaller nations fighting against hegemony? Can America afford or survive 10 Iraqs ... or 10

Vietnams

? Can America win an asymmetric war against an “invisible” army even in

Iraq

alone?

American Crossroad

As the sole remaining superpower in the world today, the United States stands at a critical crossroad. One road leads to world domination. Using its pre-eminent military war machine with no equal in the world, it can strike at any perceived threat, change foreign sovereign regimes at will, grab precious mineral resources anywhere in the world, and control local economies with its hosts of transnational corporations. It can also sabotage the economy of up-coming rivals, or launch preventive wars to preempt prospective competitors and try to defeat them militarily while they are still weak compared to America.

Such a course of action is very tempting indeed, especially to leaders with global ambitions of becoming “Lords of the Earth”. But such a road is full of risks and what is planned on paper, as what was done in

Iraq

, may not turn out as planned. And such path will necessarily ignite the outrage of most right-thinking people.

America

will earn for itself the enmity and hatred of people all over the world.

America

had outlined its blueprint for world domination, by force if necessary, in the following documents:

l “National Security Strategy of the

United States of America

”, September 2001

l President George W. Bush’s speech at the Graduation Ceremony at West Point, June 1, 2002;

l “Rebuilding

America

’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for the New Century”, A Report of the Project for the New American Century, September 2000

l “Defense Planning Guidance” written by then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz in Feb 18, 1992

In these documents, the U.S. outlined some of its new doctrines and policies such as: preventive war, pre-emptive military actions, unilateralism, regime change, acting as the world’s constabulary or “cavalry”, establishment of military bases and spreading U.S. forces all over the world, control of outer space and the global commons of cyberspace, and control of the world’s oil resources.

The alternate road, on the other hand, leads to world leadership. The

U.S.

can choose to use its power, wealth, and influence to sincerely do good for the people on this planet. It can lead in easing or obliterating the debt burden of poor nations, or in promoting the spread of quality education through distance learning in remote villages of developing countries. It can focus in the fight against poverty, or the fight against drugs, or the effort to save the deteriorating environment of planet earth. It can lead the fight against HIV/AIDS, or malaria, and other deadly diseases. The whole world is waiting for the

U.S.

to lead in these important battles.

If the

U.S.

chooses to focus its huge resources on the latter, I am confident that it will gain the hearts and minds of people all over the world. Then it can be a true world leader. Then, it can maintain its preeminent world status. By gaining the world’s sympathy and support, terrorism directed against Americans and the

U.S.

mainland will be greatly minimized. The alternate road, in fact, is the key to defeating the phenomenon of “terrorism” gripping the world today.

Let us pray that God or Allah will guide

America

as it decides what road to take for the 21^st century.

References

1. Keeping the

U.S.

First; Pentagon Would Preclude a Rival Superpower by Barton Gellman,The Washington Post March 11, 1992

2. How U.S. Business has Adapted to Globalization by Lee Brudvig June 4, 2002

3. A Bush vision of Pax Americana By Gail Russell Chaddock | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

4. Anti-Americanism and its threat to transatlantic cooperation and security by Christian Jokinen 31.5.2004;*Published originally in Turkish Policy Quarterly, June 2004

5. Is it good for the world to have the U.S. as the sole superpower? Written by: Joe Messerli 05/05/2004

6. Balancing Ties by Wang Yi

7. Free Reign for the Sole Superpower? by Carl Conetta, Charles Knight, and Robert Leavitt January 1994 issue of Boston Review

8. President Bush Speech at 2002 Graduation Exercise of the United States Military Academy, West Point, New York

9. How We Got Into This Imperial Pickle: A PNAC Primer by Bernard Weiner, May 26, 2003, The Crisis Papers

10. The New Regionalism: Drifting Toward Multi-Polarity by Dr. Michael A. Weinstein, June 7, 2004

11. Pax Americana? By Anthony Aman, Published on Oct 18,2002 in the Bangor Daily News

12. East Asian New Regionalism: Toward Economic Integration? By Shee Poon Kim, Ritsumeikan International Affairs Vol. 1, pp 57-87

13. Challenge of and Response to Globalization: The Case of Southeast Asia by Prasert Chittiwatanapong, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand, Sept 1996

14. China’s Regional Trade Agreements: The Law, Geopolitics, and Impact on the Multilateral Trading System by Jiangyu Wang, 2004 Singapore Year Book of International Law and Contributors

15. Trilateral Priorities in Regional and Global Economic Relations by Zhang Li

16. Trade Policy in East Asia: Regionalism Triumphant? By Razeen Sally

17 Globalization by Yogesh Ambekar, 8/18/2004

18 East Asian Trade Relations in the Wake of China’s WTO Accession by David Roland-Holst

19. Globalism and Regionalism, Selected Papers Delivered at the United Nations University, 2-6 Sept 1996, Edited by Toshiro Tanaka and Takashi Inoguchi

20. Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources, A Report of the Project for a New American Century, September 2000

21. The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, September 2002

22. Regional Economic Cooperation in East Asia After the Crisis by Dr Kiyokatsu Nishiguchi, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan

23. China Rocks the Geopolitical Boat with Iran Oil Deals by Kavah L Afrasiabi

24. China Debates the Future Security Environment by Michael Pillsbury, National Defense University Press, January 2000

25. 14 ‘Enduring Bases’ set in Iraq – Long-term military presence planned, Christine Spolar, Chicago Tribune, March 23, 2004

26. Clinton’s flawed defense shield not designed to stop new Russian cruise missiles, Charles Smith, World Net Daily, June 6, 2000

27. After 9/11,

U.S.

policy built on world bases, James Sterngold, SFGate.com, March 21, 2004

28.

China

beefs up it navy by George Anzera, Asia Times Online, September 14, 2005

29. Global Economic Paper No. 99, Goldman Sachs “Dreaming with BRICs: the Path to 2050, October 1, 2003

30.

Iran

: a Bridge Too Far? by Mark Gaffney, Information Clearing House, October 26, 2004

31. Caspian Sea Region: Reserves and Pipelines, Energy Information Administration, July 2002

32. Central Asian Backlash against

U.S.

Franchised Revolutions by Gahendra Singh, Paper No. 1449, March 7, 2005

33. Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries by Andrew Feichart, March 5, 2004

34. The Ties the Bind China, Russia and Iran by Jephraim P.Gundzik, Asia Times Online, June 4, 2005

35. Military Exercise by Russia, China has message for

U.S.

by Mark Magnier and Kim Murphy, Dawn the Internet Edition, August 19, 2005

36. Submarines: The Chinese Submarine Building Program, Sid Travethan, Strategy Page, May 24, 2004

37. China-ASEAN Sign Pact for Biggest Free Trade Zone, Dawn-Business, Nov 30, 2004

38. China, Russia Strengthening Strategic Alliance by Patrick Goodenough, CNS News.com, March 6, 2000

39. China Luring Foreign Scholars to Make Its Universities Great by Howard W. French, The New York Times, October 28, 2005

40. China’s New Stealth Missiles Could Nuke

U.S.

Without Warning by Charles R. Smith, World Net Daily. com, Nov 30, 1999

41. China Tests Supersonic Cruise Missiles, Bill Coertz, The Washington Times, Sept 25, 2001

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Sun, 19 Mar 2006 11:42:01 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Thirteen

By Cesar Lumba

I have seen an explosion these days on the internet of suggestions being made about how to help the country pull itself by the bootstraps. No doubt, all are well-intentioned and are a good alternative use for the energy generated by the recent national preoccupation with Gloriagate, which, as a national issue, appears to be at its death-throes.

Some who had been radicalized by the Garci tapes fiasco and are now willing to give the President a second chance are wondering how all of the energy recently generated could be harnessed to improve the lot of the little guy.

It is very easy to come up with goals and ideals - we already know what these are - it is quite another to choose the best alternatives out of a universe of possible alternatives.

There is a suggestion - mistaken in my opinion - that the way to go about nation building is by starting small. Do, in other words, that which can easily be done. Do, incrementally, one small project at a time.

This, however, is merely a continuation of what is already being done in the Philippines. You only have to read the papers - not even the learned journals - to know that it is how things are being done in the Philippines. One small project here, one small project there, and then hope that they will snowball and carry the whole country into the promised land.

But it hasn't worked. After many years, the rich are richer, the poor are poorer.

I'll tell you why it hasn't worked.

Take the approach of some of the country's educators. What comes to mind easily is the Christian Brothers' new school for the poor in Bagac, Bataan. It is indeed a noble achievement that the Brothers are in a position to offer quality education to the school children who would not otherwise be able to afford it. And it is not just the Christian Brothers. There are other groups, other religious organizations, that are reaching out to poor children and endeavoring to give them quality education.

What is wrong with this picture is that the education of some of the poor children will result in perhaps those children's ascension to the ranks of the elites.

It is definitely good for those children, but is it good for the country?

Remember that the overhwhelming majority of children go to public schools. Those children who are not afforded the quality education in the La Salle school or in other schools run by priests and nuns throughout the country, will remain stagnant and unable to fend for themselves in adulthood.

In a society that is largely exploitative (neo-feudal) the products of the La Salle schools for the poor and the other schools run by priests and nuns will tend to dominate and exploit those who have not had the same quality education.

Imagine a town with 25,000 inhabitants. Under normal circumstances, there might be 2000 in that town that may be classified as the elite, the power brokers, the dispensers of economic favors. The rest are dependent, totally or partially, on the elite 2000.

Now, because some of the students are being educated properly by the schools run by the religious, eventually the elite population will grow even as the population grows. Twenty years later, when the population is double at 50,000, the elite might triple to 6000.

In other words, in the expoloitative society that the townspeople live in, there will be more people who will exploit the poor. Many of those additional elites who will end up exploiting the poor will in fact have been educated by the religious schools, including the La Salle Brothers' Bagac school.

So, while the Brothers' and other religious groups' intention is both noble and commendatory, if providing quality education to only a lucky few is the only thing that is being done for the poor, the results can dramatically contribute to further exploitation of the poor.

Let me illustrate this with a chicken coop. In the natural pecking order, there may be four or five roosters and hens who go around terrorizing the other chicken in the coop. If you add two more alpha male chicken to the coop, there will be more peckers going around and enforcing the new pecking order.

This is an extreme example, I admit, but it illustrates my point clearly, so I have used it.

It illustrates that certain small, incremental projects, while easy to accomplish, may do more harm than good.

What is needed in the Philippines is a complete overhaul of the educational system. And this means the public school system. We should not just expand the members of the elite class, by educating some of them in the elite schools for free. We should in addition educate all the children properly so they cannot be exploited by the elites.

When majority of the population can fend for themselves, the dynamics of the age-old unwritten arrangement between the poor and the rich in the barrios and barangays in the cities as well as in the remote areas of the Philippines will be replaced by an emergent new order that mandates cooperation and not exploitation.

I am being intentionally repetitious: if we lift some poor students and help them eventually join the ranks of the elites in the Philippines, and we do not help the other poor students who are raised in public schools, what we are accomplishing is merely increasing the ranks of those who will exploit the poor in the neo-feudal society of the Philippines.

On the economic front, we see other evidence that small incremental growth may have severe long term ill effects. Take the case of the explosive growth of call centers. The Philippines has benefited from the growth of outsourcing world-wide (insourcing from the vantage point of the Philippines), but the growth may soon stop as it becomes more difficult to find employees who speak good English.

When the international community becomes convinced that the Philippines has limited growth opportunities in the call centers business, they will turn to other countries that may eventually siphon off even existing call center activities in the Philippines. For if the call center entrepreneurs find other countries with better assets than the Philippines, they will pull out of the Philippines and invest in other countries.

We saw this happen with the many industsries that were once in the Philippines but were eventually chased away by our capricious judicial system, the kidnapping, the threat of terrorist attacks.

We hope that this will not happen with our call center businesses, of course, that we will be able to feed the pipeline with good, English-speaking students as the need for them explodes.

Just the same, this illustrates that incremental improvements in one sector, if not supported by overall improvement in the whole system, will be temporary at best, counter-productive at worst.

The more I reflect upon what is happening in the Philippines, the more I become convinced that my series, Blueprint for a New Philippines, has exceptional relevance in these times.

To those who are wondering how best to proceed with nation-building in the Philippines, I am recommending that you read or re-visit my Blueprint by clicking on this url: http://www.xanga.com/clumba.

Sunday, February 26, 2006

Sun, 26 Feb 2006 14:23:24 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Twelve

By Cesar Lumba

As one of those who called on President Arroyo to step down after the Garci Tapes revelations, conventional wisdom would suggest that I would be unable to do a Houdini, calling now for the President to continue with the work that she obviously has set out to do. These, however, are not normal times, and conventional wisdom does not apply.

As late as two days ago, I was opposing Gloria's Proclamation 1017. Now I have become a reluctant cheerleader.

Am I an opportunist? Of course. Filipinos must be opportunists. We don't get too many chances in this world, and we must take advantage of them when they come.

This is what Mrs. Arroyo has to do to cement her legacy: Having moved in against the coup plotters, she must identify them and hail them to court. The trials must be transparent and fair.

Those in the Philippines whose only function in life is to destabilize the government, and then claim that because the government has been destabilized the President must step down, must be forced to mend their ways. Everyone in the Philippines knows who these people are, so it should not be a surprise to anyone if the President moves in on them.

The trick is to make sure that those who are engaged in legitimate dissent are not silenced. This is the area where President Arroyo's educational background and Catholic upbringing will have to be harnessed and put to good use. It's a balancing act she must learn, and learn quickly.

She must back away from trying to intimidate the press. The press can be a strong ally, and it is even stronger as an enemy. Let the press scream rebellion all they want. If the rabble-rousers have been silenced, the screaming press won't do her harm.

(I may have been one of the rabble-rousers in the past, and ordinarily I would resent being silenced. But I would gladly surrender some of my speech freedom if it will result in a new, more responsive, more modern Philippines.)

Mrs. Arroyo must take this opportunity to disband the armed goons (kidnappers, smugglers, jueteng lords, etc.) and rid the countryside of corrupt policemen who oppress the people instead of protecting them.

She must issue a "Zero Tolerance" executive order, signalling to all government employees, especially those in the BIR and Customs, that from this day forward, corruption in government will no longer be tolerated. She must install an Ombudsman and provide staffers who will do the cleanup work. And she must insist on a deadline. I would recommend January 1, 2009.

The Ombudsman and staff will have roughly three years to clean up government operations, ridding the government of corrupt employees and replacing them with employees who have gone through a rigorous training in ethical conduct.

She must continue her work toward charter change, not only to change the system of government from presidential to parliamentary, but also to expand the Bill of Rights, as I have outlined in my Blueprint - Part Ten.

She must inspire the leaders of the PNP and the military to join her in her drive to remake Philippine society. And, having consolidated her powers and made her government secure, she can terminate her declared state of emergency just as suddenly as she has promulgated it. I don't know how long this would take, but what's two to three years compared to the rest of our lives?

China, after all, is a repressive state, and yet the whole world is rushing to invest there because there is peace and order, and the government can be relied upon to deliver on its promises.

The opposition must realize now that Gloria is not going to step down. Yet nation building is too important to keep the country paralyzed. Let us now all join forces and really, truly work for the betterment of the Filipino people.

To the Filipinos who still insist that Gloria must step down because she is not a legitimate ruler: We here in the U.S. have a president who was not elected by the American people when he first assumed office in 2000. More than sixty percent of the people disagree with nearly everything he does and think that he lies to them constantly, and wouldn't mind seeing him impeached. But people know that it's not going to happen because Congress and the courts are controlled by the President's allies.

So we suck it up, and we wait for 2008, when we can finally be rid of the guy.

In the Philippines, though, we cannot simply sit idly by, waiting for Gloria to step down in 2010. We must all do our part, and regardless of how we feel towards Gloria, we must be willing to work with her if she is genuinely working for the improvement of every Filipino's lot in life.

Frankly, I didn't think she had it in her. She has surprised me, and has won me over. It's a slippery slope, and she may yet end up in the belly of the beast. But at least no historian who will look back at her presidency can claim that hers was inconsequential.

(to be continued)

Post comments in the "add comments" section, or send an e-mail to clumba@optonline.net.

Friday, February 24, 2006

Fri, 24 Feb 2006 12:53:08 GMT

FLASH! FLASH! FLASH!

MALACAÑANG PALACE
MANILA

PROCLAMATION NO. 1017

PROCLAMATION DECLARING A STATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY

WHEREAS, over these past months, elements in the political opposition
have conspired with authoritarians of the extreme Left represented by
the NDF-CPP-NPA and the extreme Right, represented by military
adventurists--the historical enemies of the democratic Philippine
State—who are now in tactical alliance and engaged in a concerted and
systematic conspiracy, over a broad front, to bring down the duly
constituted Government elected in May 2004.

WHEREAS, these conspirators have repeatedly tried to bring down the President;

WHEREAS, the claims of these elements have been recklessly magnified
by certain segments of the national media;

WHEREAS, this series of actions is hurting the Philippine State--by
obstructing governance including hindering the growth of the economy
and sabotaging the people's confidence in government and their faith
in the future of this country;

WHEREAS, these actions are adversely affecting the economy;

WHEREAS, these activities give totalitarian forces of both the extreme
Left and extreme Right the opening to intensity their avowed aims to
bring down the democratic Philippine State;

WHEREAS, Article 2, Section 4 of our Constitution makes the defense
and preservation of the democratic institutions and the State the
primary duty of Government;

WHEREAS, the activities above-described, their consequences,
ramifications and collateral effects constitute a clear and present
danger to the safety and the integrity of the Philippine State and of
the Filipino people;

NOW, THEREFORE, I Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, President of the Republic
of the Philippines and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the
Philippines, by virtue of the powers vested upon me by Section 18,
Article 7 of the Philippine Constitution which states that: " The
President…whenever it becomes necessary,…may call out (the) armed
forces to prevent or suppress…rebellion…, " and in my capacity as
their Commander-in-Chief, do hereby command the Armed Forces of the
Philippines, to maintain law and order throughout the Philippines,
prevent or suppress all forms of lawless violence as well any act of
insurrection or rebellion and to enforce obedience to all the laws and
to all decrees, orders and regulations promulgated by me personally or
upon my direction; and as provided in Section 17, Article 12 of the
Constitution do hereby declare a State of National Emergency.

IN WITNESS HEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the seal of
the Republic of the Philippines to be affixed.

Done in the City of Manila, this 24th day of February, in the year of
Our Lord, two thousand and six.

GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYO
President
Republic of the Philippines

As of this writing, suspected coup plotters are being arrested, the President's perceived enemies are being silenced.

Was this justified? When the smoke clears, we will know.

Let's hope the newspapers are not closed, though obviously most of them will be intimidated.

There is so much going on in the Philippines right now so I will try to post my opinions more often than the once-a-week or even less frequent postings I have been conducting in the past.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Tue, 21 Feb 2006 11:37:05 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Eleven

By Cesar Lumba

I was reading my weekend papers on Sunday (New York Times and Star Ledger), in my typical leisurely manner - I'm not a fast reader anymore - and I was a picture of contentment in the kitchen, because the kids did not have to go to school, and nobody was stirring except me and the two cats.

Suddenly, it caught my eye. The Philippines, according to the Star Ledger, requested financial assistance from the U.S. for rescue and recovery efforts in southern Leyte, the site of one of the biggest natural disasters in the Philippines. Of course, the Leyte disaster was mind-boggling and even a numbing experience, and I can't fault the Philippine government for extending an arm, palms up.

Not being in the government, I can't tell you what the protocol is. But every time there is a natural disaster, especially of the magnitude of the Leyte mudslide, foreign governments rush in and offer aid. I had never read of a case where the home government had to ask for financial help.

I hope the account of the Star Ledger was wrong, that White House assistant Trent Duffy had been misquoted, but there it was in the February 18 article about the Leyte tragedy: "The United States also is sending money requested by the Phililppine government for search and rescue, White House spokesman Trent Duffy said. He did not say how much would be sent."

The Philippines is one of the unluckiest countries in the world. It is on the path of major typhoons, there's a major earthquake at least once every decade or two, there are mudslides every year, there are occasional ferry sinkings. So why does the country not have an adequate budget for disaster search and recovery?

Knowing that India rejected the offers of financial assistance from foreign governments after the monstrous earthquake that leveled a huge swath of northwestern India and northern Pakistan last year, it struck me as odd that the Philippines would turn to the United States for financial assistance.

Nature's Fury

It's been disaster after disaster all over the world, with the major tectonic plates in a hyperactive state and global warming stoking the ire of nature over human encroachment on beaches and forests. The poorest countries in Africa are being decimated by the AIDS epidemic. It's no wonder the world has become weary of charitable causes.

And the worst is yet to come. Global warming, alone, will create more category five hurricanes - is it possible to have a category 6 or 7? - and the resultant droughts are setting the stage for monster forest fires. The meltdown of Arctic, Antarctic and mountain glaciers are sure to inundate the oceans and wipe out islands and swallow up whole countries.

A Sad Outlook for the Philippines

Since the Philippines operates with a huge budget deficit each year, and it is deficits as far as the eye can see well into the future, the country simply does not have the resources to build infrastructure that will protect villages that are at risk because of their proximity to mountains that at any moment may come rumbling down and burying them. Clearly, the populations in those towns and villages situated dangerously close to mountain sides must be moved to safer locales.

Through the spirit of bayanihan, many of the houses can be moved to safer ground, since a lot of those houses are made of nipa and bamboo and are light enough to be placed on trucks or platforms. There are, however, enough houses in the remote villages that are made of concrete, and such houses, unfortunately, cannot be moved.

The government, therefore, must find the resources to finance such massive population relocations.

Back to the Moratorium on Interest Payments

Recall that in the fourth and fifth parts of this continuing series, I recommended that the Philippine government should declare a ten-year moratorium on interest payments on the country's sovereign (national) debt. Such a move would free up P180 billion a year for ten years. The money generated can be used to modernize schools, to increase funding for health care, and, additionally, to help finance the relocation of communities to safer ground.

There are life and death issues that the government must address, and it must do it yesterday. There is enough money being generated by the taxing authorities, but, unfortunately, a significant portion of that money goes to the holders of Philippine debt. In fact, interest payments are the biggest single item on the Philippine budget.

And the problem is getting worse. The government will borrow P150 billion this year to pay the interest, which is projected at P330 billion in fiscal 2006. Next year, the amount will surely increase, because of the increased borrowing this year.

The government must find a way to finance the projects that are matters of life and death for the Filipino people, because the developed countries of the world can no longer be relied upon to help. And it's not right, either. Those countries must take care of their own people who are victims of natural disasters that are coming at the world in increasing frequency and destructiveness.

While debts of some of the poorest countries in Africa have been forgiven, the Philippines, clinging to the mirage of international credit-worthiness, has not moved to have her sovereign debt forgiven. The country, after all, has a positive trade balance, and can tread water indefinitely.

What the Philippines should do is sit down with the banks and other lending institutions and work out a plan - similar to a Chapter XI bankruptcy plan - that will allow the country to address her most pressing needs while protected by bilateral agreements allowing the ten-year moratorium on interest payments.

Bear in mind that countries such as the Philippines are the reason globalization works for the Group of Eight countries, Taiwan, Korea, China, India and the Tiger economies. The Philippine market has become a natural destination of products and services of those countries. She can be a reliable trading partner because she is willing to borrow huge sums to finance her people's standard of living.

It is time to turn the tables on those countries. We have been the good boys for a long time, never questioning, never obstructing the march of globalization. As a result, we have gone deeper and deeper into debt - to the point that the Philippine government cannot adequately respond to emergencies without asking for financial help from our presumed patron, the United States.

All it will take is a ten-year moratorium on interest payments on the sovereign debt. Do we have the will to do this?

(to be continued)

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Saturday, January 28, 2006

Sat, 28 Jan 2006 11:48:58 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Ten

By Cesar Lumba

There is an inner radio station in every individual that he or she listens to daily, at work, at play, at rest and at reverie. Some have called it station WIIFM, What's In it For Me.

In a country such as the Philippines, where large segments of the population must ask that question constantly - it is the difference between eating and starving in a growing number of cases - the people have come to the conclusion that the major institutions are not working for them. Whatever or whomever the institutions are working for, it certainly is not them.

There is a sense that the Congress, the Presidency, the Courts, the Police, the Military, Local governments, the Press have failed the people big-time. Outside of the family, I'm sure you will agree, the one enduring institution that the people can still turn to, and do so regularly, is the Catholic Church.

Modern-day secularists have a problem with this. I have a problem with it. The Church, while prohibited by the Philippine constitution from meddling in governmental affairs, has nonetheless stood in the path of reasonable government programs, such as the distribution of condoms as protection against AIDS, as well as an instrument of family planning.

Constitutional Dissonance

We know that the separation of church and state in the Philippines, a constitutional mandate, does not exist in reality. The accused's right to a speedy trial, embedded in the constitution, is interpreted very liberally by judges, who, because of a huge backlog of cases, cannot guarantee such speedy trials.

In fairness to the Philippines, a lot of countries have forged constitutions that are a model of democracy, but the governments have ruled as tyrants. Constitutions, therefore, are not a guarantee that the governments shall honor the democratic principles embodied in those constitutions.

But given the limited reach of constitutions in many countries, every modern society still needs one, because when the government finally musters enough courage and will to take an activist or progressive path, there must be a constitutional basis for its actions.

The constitution is always the starting point. And without it there can be no order, no enduring peace in a society. But, because of their understandable cynicism, the people seem to be at best indifferent to efforts of the Arroyo administration and its allies in Congress to amend the constitution, presumably for the purpose of improving governance. This will benefit the elite classes initially, then the lower classes eventually. Be patient, the administration seems to be telling the masses, the benefits will eventually trickle down to you. At worst, many in the Philippines think it is all a cruel joke, started by the administration to keep Arroyo in power.

If it is a joke, then the people will tolerate it. After all, in the Philippines, every unpleasant experience is turned into a joke. The Erap jokes. The Arroyo pandak and "Hello Garci" jokes. Etc. The people reduce everything into a joke, because they abhor the alternative. The alternative, you see, is to cry. And Big Boyz don't cry.

If the Arroyo administration continues on the same cha-cha (charter change) path, the current drive to scrap the Presidential system and replace it with a Parliamentary system may be thwarted at the Palace gates. The people must not only understand it, they must champion it. And they must support it at the initial stages, not just in a plebiscite.

The parliamentary system's crisis can be turned into an opportunity. But first the administration must ask itself, "how can we get the people on our side?"

My recommendation: The President must convert the cha-cha movement into a drive to expand the rights of the masses. Cha-cha must be about the people, not just the government.

The first ten amendments to the U.S. constitutution were the Bill of Rights. The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery. The nineteenth amendment gave women the right to vote. The twenty-sixth amendment gave eighteen-year-olds the right to vote. In 1971, while the Vietnam war raged, the people of the United States made the right call when they told their youth, "If you are old enough to die defending your country, you are old enough to vote."

Amendments must empower the people

One look at the 1987 constitution will convince anyone that Article IV, Bill of Rights, derives from the first ten amendments to the U.S. constitution. With one important difference: while the U.S. amendments are general and are subject to various interpretations, the Bill of Rights in the Philippine Constitution are specific and leave little room for creative interpretation. For this reason, the Bill of Rights section in the Philippine constitution is an improvement on the American original.

But how does the Bill of Rights work for the modern Filipino? You will recall that the Bill of Rights was a derivation of the old English Magna Carta, which was crafted in the middle ages to protect individuals from the excesses of a tyrannical King. Yet one glaring weakness of the American Bill of Rights is that it reflects the realities of life in the new American nation in late 18th century.

While the Philippine 1987 constitution goes farther than its American counterpart in the protection of the privacy of communication between individuals (Section 3 (1) of Article IV) there is nothing in the Philippine Bill of Rights that expands the rights of the people to make them more secure and more whole in the 21st century.

Expansion of the Bill of Rights

The 1987 constitution appears to be a call for the preservation of the status quo. It is a picture of a country treading water. It is intended to keep the people, the government, the state from sinking, but it does not aspire to greatness.

I have been reading the 1987 constitution over the past month, and have re-read certain sections, and I have concluded that only an expansion of the Bill of Rights will guarantee that the country shall move forward and take giant steps in the years ahead.

The conversion of the government from a presidential system to a parliamentary system appears to be the correct step, even though it is a major gamble. It is, however, sadly lacking in direct benefits to the dispossessed, the downtrodden, the teeming dirt-poor masses. Even the middle classes do not appear to directly benefit from the shift to a parliamentary system.

WIIFM. What's in it for me, the average Juan is asking. And if he doesn't, he should.

Since the government is trying to change the constitution anyway, why not expand the people's rights. There are 22 sections in Article IV, Bill of Rights, of the 1987 constitution. Let's add the following sections:

Sec. 23. No person shall be denied medical care and/or prescription drugs by reason of poverty.

Every great country has some form of universal health care. The Europeans and the Canadians have a system where the government is the sole provider. The U.S. system is a private-public hodge-podge, with most American employers footing the bill, while the government provides it for the seniors, the poor and the veterans of foreign wars.

Cambodia, yes tiny Cambodia, has universal health care.

The 1987 constitutution, under Article XV, Social Justice and Human Rights, says "the State shall endeavor to provide free medical care to paupers." (Sec. 11)

That's not good enough. The constitution must recognize that the right to health care is a fundamental right of modern peoples, and as important as the right to a free press and the pursuit of happiness.

Sec. 24. All citizens are entitled to protection against corrupt practices.

(1) Every level of government shall ensure the right of individuals to transact business with a government institution, a government representative, a law-enforcement official without fear of being subjected to a request for bribes.

(2) The process of awarding government contracts shall be transparent and conducted in a fair and uncomplicated manner.

This is another fundamental right that must be recognized in the constitution. If people have a right to private property, they must also have a right to keep their own money and not be forced to part with that money by corrupt officials demanding bribes. If people have the right to engage in commerce, they must be able to do so without some government bureaucrat demanding bribes before their papers are processed.

Sec. 25. The citizens have a right to an egalitarian society.

(1) No laws shall be passed that hinder the economic ascendancy of the lower classes or members of minoritiy classes.

This appears to be an obvious right that exists on the margins - the penumbra - of the constitution, so some may feel that this section is unnecessary. And yet, it is so much better for the people to specifically include it in the constitution. By recognizing egalitarianism as a right in the constitution, it creates a mandate for the government to pursue it as one of its goals.

Nepotism in government will be rendered unconstitutional, and the people will tend to receive better service from government bureaucrats who are, after all, on the people's payroll.

Sec. 26. Children of all citizens and nationals have a right to free public education at the elementary and high school levels that adequately prepares them for the demands of the futuristic global society.

(1) Children living in poverty are entitled to free lunches while attending school.

By creating a right to an education that prepares the youth for the ever-changing demands of a futuristic global society, the government is mandated to overhaul the public school system. This proposed section will also recognize the need for a public school system that is steeped in science, technology and math, which are the languages of the global society.

Sec. 26. The rights of individuals are not confined to those enumerated in this article. Certain rights that have existed throughout the millenia of human history and are not specifically mentioned in this Article IV are presumed to continue to exist.

Why should we expand the Bill of Rights at this time, when there is no clamor for such an expansion? you may ask. That is precisely why we should do it at this time. Nobody is thinking of the little guy, except the little guy. If the government can demonstrate that it is doing its charter amendments for the benefit of the masses, the people will more readily embrace the current movement to amend the constitution.

It will be an amendment of substance, and not just of form.

A word of caution: The government cannot simply add to Article IV of the Bill of Rights. New legislation will have to be enacted, either by the currrent government or the Parliament that succeeds it, to ensure that the rights granted by the additions to the Bill of Rights become reality.

Every thinking man in the Philippines must welcome this expansion in the Bill of Rights. If the government becomes focused on enacting the inherent mandates of the expansion of the Bill of Rights, it shall be on its way to crafting a "more perfect union" of individuals known as the Republic of the Philippines.

It will ensure that the nation shall be focused on building a great nation, not just a nation of survivors.

(to be continued)

Post comments in the section, Add comments, below. Or e-mail me at clumba@optonline.net.

Thursday, January 05, 2006

Thu, 05 Jan 2006 23:36:06 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Nine

By Cesar Lumba

If you are looking for a good New Year's resolution, you could assign yourself the task of reading the proposed new Philippine constitution. As advertised, it is the 1987 Constitution, with amendments. But the term amendments does not do the Con-com's work justice. While not exactly gutting the interior, it completely remodels the living room, the dining room and the kitchen. The foundations are still the same, but when done, the Con-com will hand over to Filipinos a completely remodeled house with a nearly brand new interior.

One does not get a sense of a Jeffersonian intellect weaving words and phrases in the constitution, but it is for our purposes an excellent document. You may, like me, feel that the constitution is the blueprint for the structure of the Philippine government and society at large, and you want to see Jeffersonian flourish in the language. You may want to see true grit, the jaw-protruding determination to forge a society that is going places, not just a society that is trying to get by. Except for the lack of Jeffersonian flourish, the document for the most part has all that, but we can always do better.

My Blueprint - Part Ten will make recommendations on how to change the language of our new constitution, to reflect the country's desire to provide a bright future for her citizens. Right now, I will confine my commentary to the proposed parliamentary system and the federalization of the Philippines. I also want to suggest two other changes that will immediately transform the constitution into a mandate for greatness.

The proposed Philippine Parliament

Because all executive and legislative power will emanate from the Parliament, gone will be the concept of checks and balances. While this appears to be bad news to purists, this is actually a boon to Philippine governance. In the Philippines, checks and balances often mean gridlock.

Gone too will be the imperial Presidency. The President will still be able to declare martial law, but only at the urging of the Prime Minister. The military will still report to the President, but the President does not have the power to mobilize the armed forces. That power will reside in the Prime Minister.

The military, therefore, will no longer have anyone of consequence to declare a coup against. (This, folks, is the end of those politicians whose only claim to fame is their ability to destabilize the government.)

The proposed Philippine Federal Republic

Initially, the present structure of provinces, towns, municipalities, barangays, chartered cities and autonomous regions will continue in place. The formation of other autonomous regions will be encouraged until the whole country comprises autonomous regions. Those autonomous regions will eventually be designated as states in the new Federal Republic of the Philippines.

One of the states may be called Bisaya, and shall be the regional government for the whole Visayas region. Another state, Mindanao, will govern the whole Christian Mindanao region, while another state, the current autonomous Muslim region of Mindanao and Sulu will govern the southern tip of the Philippines.

Luzon could be broken up into several "states," such as the state of Ilocos, Central Luzon, the Tagalog region and the Bicol region. Or it could all be lumped together as one state known as Luzon. Chartered cities, such as Manila, Cebu, Davao, Baguio will retain their charters.

There are obvious advantages in having various states that shall make up the Federal Republic of the Philippines. One of those is that regional economies will be allowed, even encouraged, to prosper with little intereference from Manila. The huge disadvantage of the present system is that the country is too Manila-centric. If a problem does not affect Manila, no one seems to care much about it. Even the Abu Sayyaf are considered a Mindanao problem.

The various states will compete for foreign investments, will be responsible for their local peace and order, will be given incentives to craft their own tax, education and social services policies, subject only to the Philippine constitution and the laws passed by Parliament.

Election of Prime Minister, President and members of Parliament

The Prime Minister will be elected by the members of Parliament from among their own members. The members of Parliament will be elected directly to five year terms by the citizens residing in their districts, which will closely approximate the current Congressional districts. Cabinet positions will be filled by the members of Parliament from among themselves. Those positions will no longer be known as cabinet positions but as ministries.

It will be a unicameral legislature, which means there will be only one House. There will be no upper house, or senate.

The President will be selected from among the ministers of the Parliament and will be considered the head of state, but with only ministerial duties. The head of the country will of course be the Prime Minister and true power will reside in that office.

The impact on Philippine politics will be profound, and virtuous. As already stated, there will no longer be gridlock between the Executive and the Legislative branches, because in the Parliamentary system, the Executive and the Legislative are one and the same.

There will be less national politicians on the country's payroll.

All members of Parliament will have a magnifying glass trained on what everybody else is doing, making it easier to monitor the areas of government where corruption is rampant. Prime ministers and members of Parliament can easily be sanctioned in Parliament, fired, or asked to resign. This should result in greater accountability in governance.

The rolls of public employees at the state or regional level will increase, but there will be a corresponding decrease in the staff at the provincial and municipal levels, as most planning will be done at the regional or state level.

And one more thing. Members of parliament, at minimum, will have to be college graduates.

Beautiful. This is the coup de grace. If McDonalds' supervisory employees have to be college graduates, why doesn't the country require that of of its national leaders? Under the new constitution, they all must be college graduates.

Now, if the new proposed constitution is really a stroke of genius, why is it encountering rough sailing?

Part of it has to do with Gloriagate. The country seems to be in no mood to dance with the petite but testosterone-laced Iron Lady. And then there are those whose enduring, lifelong dream is to become President. If the position of President is abolished, or becomes a mere shadow of itself, such political aspirants would lose their dream. There are politicians who might appeal to the people, mainly actors, but who will not have a realistic chance of becoming Prime Minister. There are those who simply hate change, and those who, like Dr. Strangelove, have fallen in love with the misery, blood, sweat and tears of Philippine national politics.

But the biggest part of the reason for a tepid reaction to the proposed new constitution is that the common tao does not see how it will benefit him or her. What's in it for the ordinary guy or gal?

The Selling of the Parliamentary System

Those who are seriously working for a new constitution that transforms the government from a unitary Presidential system to a federal Parliamentary system must find ways to touch the hearts of the masa.

The masa have seen it all before. The Philippines under Ramos was one of the success stories in Asia, with the Finance Minister Roberto de Ocampo even gaining international fame. The Philippines' GDP, her sovereign debt position and foreign investments saw major improvements. After the disastrous Cory administration, there was a palpable sense of "it's our turn" in the Philippines. Indeed, it was not unrealistic to expect that the Philippines would finally break out and join the rest of the Asian tigers.

Fortunes were made. Old fortunes were solidified. But how did these affect the masa? The ranks of the indigent increased, the poor were still poor, the lower middle class were still struggling.

Time and again, progress in the Philippines has meant that the A & B classes increased their net worth, with some in the C class participating in the largesse. But the lives of many in the C, D & E classes saw no improvement.

There is so much at stake in the work of the constitutional assembly. We know that the old system does not work, has not worked, and perhaps will never work. It is time to try a new system. The Parliamentary system, which is favored by many countries in Asia and Europe, holds promise.

So if the President and her congressional allies are really serious about the shift to a Parliamentary system, they will have to do a better selling job. And this is not to say that they have to employ Madison Avenue advertising tactics, but they must have a super salesman's face on TV constantly, and they must do a full-court press.

I mentioned TV because that is the medium for the masa. The poor don't read the columnists, have no access to the work of constitutional scholars. The poor get their information from TV.

A Hint of Greatness

What the effort needs is a realization that the C, D & E classes must be offered an incentive to root for the amendments.

The incentive can come in the form of a constitutional mandate for universal health insurance and an educational system that addresses the challenges of the 21st century.

The constitutuion gives the same rights to a fertilized ovum (a blastocyst) as it does to the mother. Why doesn't the constitution guarantee the right of every Filipino citizen and national to universal health insurance? Anecdotal evidence suggests that the health insurance companies in the Philippines have viability problems. A universal health insurance system, which will utilize the existing medical infrastructure (hospitals, clinics, doctors and physician assistants) will be a quantum leap from the constitution's guarantee.

Article XV, Section 11 of the proposed constitution states: The State shall adopt an integrated and comprehensive approach to health development which shall endeavor to make essential goods, health and other social services available to all the people at affordable cost. The needs of the underprivileged sick, elderly, disabled, women and children shall be prioritized. The State shall endeavor to provide free medical care to paupers.

This is vague language that simply promises the people that the government will try to make do with existing resources and "will endeavor to provide medical care to paupers."

Article XV, Section 11 should read: The State considers medical care a right of every citizen and legal resident of the Philippines. A universal health care system shall be established, which will guarantee that all Filipinos have access to medical care as a fundamental right.

This, of course, does not mean that there must be universal health insurance in the Philippines simultaneously with the passage of the constitutional amendments. It means, for the most part, that the government will have a mandate to explore and eventually implement a universal health insurance system similar to Canada's and to those of various European countries.

Since the Philippine constitution goes into very fine details, it may specify that the education that the state will guarantee its young citizens at the elementary and high school levels will be steeped in science and mathematics, on par with the good public schools in Asia. The Ministry of Education can, on its own, add a grade eleven to the high school curriculum later on.

If the Arroyo administration bundles the two rights - the right to universal health insurance and the right to a superior public education - along with the shift to a parliamentary system, the C, D and E Filipinos will embrace the work of the consultative commission.

Financing

How shall the country finance these two ambitious projects? I discussed how the overhaul of public schools may be financed in Parts Two and Three of my Blueprint for a New Philippines, which can be found in my lanzones weblog, http://www.xanga.com/clumba. I did not discuss how a universal health care system in the Philippines could be financed.

I believe however that if the leaders of the Philippines adopt my recommendation, i.e., a ten year moratorium on interest payments on all national debts, there will be enough money to jump start a universal health care system.

The rest of the money will come from businesses and employees in the form of new health care taxes. The businesses will be taxed on the basis of the number of employees, while the employees will be taxed by payroll deduction, similar to the Medicare payroll deductions from all employees in the U.S.

(to be continued)

E-mail comments to clumba@optonline.net, or post comments at my blog, http://www.xanga.com/clumba.

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Tue, 20 Dec 2005 22:02:56 GMT

Blueprint for a New Philippines - Part Eight

By Cesar Lumba

Andy Mendoza has to rush to his office at the big General Motors plant for a bunch of small meetings of his quality control circles. It is December 19, 2022 and marked on his calendar are simultaneous meetings at 9:00 am with three groups that work on the computer that runs the hybrid transmission of the Chevrolet Cobalt. Another meeting is scheduled at 11:00 with the group that installs the stereo systems and another meeting at 2:00 p.m. with the group that works on the motor assembly.

The 2:00 p.m. meeting is somewhat iffy, coming on the heels of a Christmas party at the accounting and administration office. He promises himself two Heinekens, tops.

Andy's wife Yvette is getting the two kids ready for school, both within two kilometers of their home in Whispering Woods subdivision. Whispering Woods is one of many planned communities that have sprung up around the commercial base operated by the United States government in what was Hacienda Luisita in Tarlac.

Yvette works as a realtor-associate at a Remax office in the village square and has the luxury of owning her own time. Andy's parents have joined the family from Bacolod and are helping take care of the kids and have the run of the house. Maids have become too expensive, because there are very few Filipinas willing to work for chump change anymore.

Hardly anyone drops out of the public schools now, for Filipino children see the schools as their ticket to escape the drudgery and poverty of the small towns in the Visayas and Mindanao. Many dream of becoming doctors, scientists, nurses, accountants and engineers. Only the unfortunate hard-luck cases - usually involving a drug addict father or mother - drop out of school now.

Andy hops into his tiny hybrid Chevrolet Cobalt, which rolled off the GM production plant just last September. In fact, he swears he saw his car as it rolled out of the finishing and staging area.

As the manager of the Quality Circles program at GM, he organizes small groups of factory workers who work in the various production divisions at the plant. There are now 39 circles that he oversees. Each circle meets once a week and discusses how their jobs can be made simpler and the quality of the group's output better. Over time, the constant search for greater efficiency and quality has made the end product, the Cobalt, competitive not only in price but also in quality in the world market.

The Cobalt is a world car. Because it is produced in a commercial base that is considered a territory of the U.S., the car is shipped to the U.S. without tariffs and as a result, the cost of the Cobalt is lower than that of Toyotas, Hondas and Nissans, which are made in southeastern U.S.

There is another GM plant in Taguig, Rizal that assembles Cobalts, using parts manufactured in the GM plant inside the commercial base and other parts imported from all over Asia. This arrangement benefits both GM and the Philippine government, and the business model promises to be a harbinger. GM ships Cobalt parts, i.e., motors, chasses, on-board computers, etc. to its plant in Taguig. That plant assembles the Cobalt together and ships the cars to various countries in Asean and to India and China.

Because there is now a free trade zone that links the Asean countries and China and India, the Cobalts that are made in the Philippines are not subject to tariffs when they land in Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, India and even China.

The Philippines' balance of trade is enhanced, while GM's bottom line in its global operations is keeping GM stock a darling in Wall Street.

Andy's job is perhaps the most important single job in the company. GM has followed Hyundai's example, and now offers a ten-year 100,000 mile warranty on the Cobalt. To control the cost of free repairs on the car, the quality of Cobalt cars must at least be equal to that of the Hondas, Toyotas, and Nissans, which do not seem to break down.

Andy, who has been in the company for eight years, received a presidential award during last year's office Christmas party, and he has been told he will receive another one this year.

Not bad for someone who never finished college. In 2007, his public elementary school in Bacolod became a science grade school. New teachers came in and started teaching advanced arithmetic, which he loved. Everything was taught by rote, and because he had a good memory, he could answer any math questions his father would throw at him. His father was amazed at the speed of the "computer" in his brain.

By the time he was in high school he had mastered trig and calculus. For his 11th grade project - a requirement for graduation - he had put together an automotive hybrid engine. He burnished the engine and made it showroom clean. When it was connected to a starter in his school lab, it started with one click. His friends said he was grinning from ear to ear.

He got a scholarship to Mapua Institute and did very well for two years. His father got sick while he was in his sophomore year, so he decided to leave Mapua and get a full-time job - to help in the family finances. That's when he found out that GM was hiring.

He took a ferry ride to Manila and asked one of his relatives to drive him to the GM plant in the American commercial base in Tarlac.

Andy rose quickly. He was usually the leader in the quality circles that he joined, and his circles were responsible for devising 100% foolproof air-bag installations in the vehicles. Another group streamlined further the wiring of the complicated stereo, car theater, nano-ipod and on-board talk n text systems.

He met Yvette in one of the office parties 8 years ago, and they were off to the races. Within two years of their marriage, they had two sons, Billy and Andy, Jr. Billy is in grade one in the science elementary school about a kilometer from Whispering Woods, while Andy, Jr. is in kindergarten at the Montessori inside the subdivision.

Andy has a cousin, Albert, who works in the Finnish-Swiss-French commercial base in Bataan. Albert is also in the production line of Nokia, and Nokia's flagship product is a satellite phone that doubles as a TV, an Ipod, a walkie-talkie, a satellite radio receiver and a recorder. College students love the product because they can do everything that kids normally do and record whole lectures of world famous professors who visit their campuses.

The Asean-China-India free trade zone has flooded the Philippines with products from China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Myanmar and India. Initially, the Philippines was reeling from lost Customs revenues, because European and American manufacturers had set up manufacturing facilities in China and Vietnam, and their products were able to enter the Philippines tariff free.

That was before the manufacturers in the commercial bases started marketing their products. While most manufacturers in the commercial bases target their own markets, i.e., the Nokia people ship most of their products to the European Common market, some 21% of their production eventually make their way to the Philippines proper. After paying a reduced tariff under a most-favored nation agreement with the Philippines, the Finnish manufacturer ships its products to markets all over Asean, China and India tariff-free.

As of this Christmas season, 2022 the Philippines balance of trade with its Asean partners, China and India is in positive territory. It has been positive for the last five years, except in 2018, when there was a huge shipment of synthetic gasoline from China.

Andy's drive to the main gate of the U.S. commercial base - euphemistically called Hawaii West - is all of five kilometers. It is such a nice drive, not only because it is all paved concrete, underground utilities, coconut tree lined berms, California style three-bedroom, two batch stucco houses with red tiled roofs, but also because inside the car it feels like being in a Sony theater. Andy thinks the ride in his British racing green Cobalt - about fifteen minutes with the traffic stops - is too short.

The gates fling open as he presses his five left fingers flush against the electronic thumb and fingers reader. As soon as he is inside Hawaii West, he is met by the roar of construction equipment. Everybody is working triple-time here. There are many American faces supervising the construction projects, but there are many more Filipinos in hard hats.

Hawaii West is so huge - some say it is 500 hectares, others claim it is more - that it is still another five minutes' drive to the sprawling GM plant that occupies 50 of the base's hectares.

Once inside the GM plant, Andy feels like he is one of the princes.

In Makati, Rose Tibayan works at the Marshall, Fields and Reyes Law Offices. It is one of the top law firms and Rose feels like a million bucks. Not only does she hobnob with some of the best local and international lawyers, she is also a part of an advance group of paralegals who are doing the crunch work in the search for more efficient paper processing of mortgages, leases and contracts.

Rose's group has computerized the title search, the mortgage and lease filing needed to complete real estate transactions. A U.S. company, Chicago Title, has set up shop in Makati, and is the point organization that is introducing title insurance to the Philippines.

The goal of Rose's group is to cut to two weeks the length of time to process mortgages, cash purchases of real estate, including the issuance of a deed and a certificate of title insurance.

This project has been made necessary because in the areas around the commercial bases and inside the bases themselves, it is so easy to buy or lease property, and the paperwork is completed usually in one week.

Makati, Manila, Cebu, Davao, Baguio, Bacolod and Dagupan City have sent teams of lawyers to the six commercial bases operating in the country to study their paper processing procedures and to determine what features in the system can be adopted in those major cities.

Curruption, bribes, burglaries, muggings, sexual assaults are at a minimum in the commercial bases compared to incidences of such crimes in the major Philippine cities. Though no one in the Philippines proper has suggested with a straight face that the Philippine cities can duplicate what is being done in the commercial bases, the responsible citizens in those cities are demanding incremental improvements in the crime rate and the incremental reductions in corruption and bribes.

La Salle, Ateneo, UP, UST and the Asian Management Institutue have become world class universities, attracting students from all over the Philippines who are more than ready for college and top students from all of Asia who are in the Philippines to study the Philippine experiment with commercial bases.

Philippine nightlife is still the best in the world, and is even better than in the past, because of first-rate entertainment. Besides, the dancing girls have a more international flavor, coming from Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Singapore (remember the girls in Singapore Airlines?). There are less Philippine dancers now, because many of the school-age Filipina girls are in school, hoping for a crack at a normal life.

(to be continued)

Post comments here or send an e-mail to clumba@optonline.net.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to all!

clumba's Xanga

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13. Challenge of and Response to Globalization: The Case of Southeast Asia by Prasert Chittiwatanapong, Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand, Sept 1996

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19. Globalism and Regionalism, Selected Papers Delivered at the United Nations University, 2-6 Sept 1996, Edited by Toshiro Tanaka and Takashi Inoguchi

20. Rebuilding America’s Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources, A Report of the Project for a New American Century, September 2000

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